6.
LIKELIHOOD OF RECURRENCE OF INJURY
(241) Since the Commission found that material injury suffered by the Union industry in the review investigation period was not caused by Chinese imports, which were below
de minimis
levels, it assessed whether there would be a likelihood of recurrence of injury should the measures be allowed to lapse.
(242) To establish the likelihood of recurrence of injury caused by Chinese imports, the following elements were analysed: the production capacity and spare capacities in China, the attractiveness of the Union market, including the existence of anti-dumping or countervailing measures on ceramic tiles in other third countries, the behaviour of Chinese exporting producers in third country markets, and the effect on the Union situation. The analysis also took into account the increase in consumption in the Union and the profitability of the Union industry during the period considered.
6.1.
Production capacities and spare capacities in China
(243) The PRC is the largest producer of ceramic tiles in the world. It accounts for nearly half of the world's overall production. Based on figures supplied by CET and the China Ceramics Report 2022, the estimated total production capacity for 2021/2022 was above 9 billion m
2
tiles (see recitals (76) and (77)). These recitals also explain that the available spare capacities in the PRC were around 2,5 to 3,5 billion m
2
. Bearing in mind that Union production in the RIP was around 1,25 billion m
2
and the consumption of ceramic tiles was only around 850 million m
2
in the same period it is clear that the Chinese spare capacity is over 3 times greater than the Union consumption in the RIP.
(244) As stated at recitals (76) to (79) the reductions in production and capacity of the Chinese industry in the years preceding the RIP, and the reasons for this decline, have no real significance bearing in mind the large capacity and spare capacity which remained in the RIP. In fact, the China Ceramics Report 2022 describes how capacity remained high due to the accelerated rate of renewal of equipment.
(245) In addition, the Chinese producers continued to export large quantities of ceramic tiles. In the RIP, despite the recent fall in capacity, and despite the existence of trade defence measures in many major economies (as explained in section 4.3), Chinese exports of ceramic tiles were valued at 4,9 billion EUR (73) and consisted of around 581 million m
2
. This meant that Chinese producers had more than 25 % of exports worldwide and clearly demonstrated the fact that exports continued to play a major role in Chinese production planning.
6.2.
Attractiveness of the Union Market
(246) The Union market of ceramic tiles being 850 million m
2
is one of the largest markets in the world. Furthermore, as shown in Table 2, Union consumption of the product concerned increased by 5 % between 2019 and the review investigation period. This shows that Union consumption remains strong and that the Union market remains attractive due to its size.
(247) Before the imposition of the measures in 2007 to 2010, Chinese imports represented, on average, around 65 million m
2
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