(148) In this regard, the Commission examined the production capacity and spare capacity in the PRC, the attractiveness of the Union market as well as the likely price levels of imports from the PRC in the absence of anti-dumping measures and their possible impact on the Union industry.
6.1.
Production capacity and spare capacity in the PRC
(149) Based on the request, the PRC producers have a production capacity of approximately 3 500 tonnes per year, over 19 times higher than the Union consumption.
6.2.
Attractiveness of the Union market and pricing behaviour in third countries
(150) The Union market is attractive in terms of its size and prices as well as due to the importance of the EU automotive industry. In the past Chinese producers repeatedly showed their interest in the Union market by attempting to circumvent the anti-dumping measures. Also, average import prices from the PRC to the Union were lower than the export prices from the PRC to other countries during the review investigation period.
(151) In the absence of significant quantities sold by Chinese exporting producers to the Union, the Commission also analysed their pricing behaviour when exporting to third countries. The PRC producers sell on average at prices which are [28-37] % lower than the average price charged by the Union industry. Consequently, exporting producers have strong incentive to redirect their sales to the Union market should the measures be allowed to lapse.
(152) The Union market is hence considered very attractive for Chinese producers, and it can be concluded that available spare capacities in China would, at least partially, be used to significantly increase exports to the Union market at dumped prices should the measures expire.
6.3.
Possible scenarios in the case of lapsing of measures
(153) The attractiveness of the Union market, as described in recitals (93) and (150), would probably lead to a significant increase of dumped imports from the PRC. As molybdenum wire is a rather homogenous product in terms of quality, the price level is the most important factor when deciding on whether to buy from the Union producers or from the Chinese exporting producers. Furthermore, and as analysed in the previous expiry review, the sudden decrease in Chinese imports in response to the anti-dumping and anti-circumvention measures indicates that customers can easily switch to the supplier with the most competitive price (i.e. from the Chinese exporting producers to the Union producers or vice-versa in case the measure lapse).
(154) For these reasons, the Union industry will then be likely forced to either reduce its sales prices at the expense of their profitability or to keep the sales prices level and most likely lose sales volume and market share to the Chinese exporters. A combination of these scenarios seems even more realistic. Ultimately, this would lead to downward price pressure, losses and the imports from the PRC likely regaining their pre-measures market share.
Feedback